As part of our process, we perform a rigorous discounted cash-flow methodology that dives into the true intrinsic worth of companies. In Coach's (COH) case, we think the firm is fairly valued at $70 per share, slightly lower than where it is currently trading.
For some background, we think a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to buy. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum Buying Index (click here for an in-depth, narrated presentation on our methodology), which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best. In the spirit of transparency, we show the performance of our VBI below:
(click to enlarge)
If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis and is showing improvement in technical and momentum indicators, it scores high on our scale. Coach posts a VBI score of 6 on our scale, reflecting our 'fairly valued' DCF assessment of the company, its neutral relative valuation versus peers, and bullish technicals. Peers in Coach's group include VF Corp (VFC), Tiffany (TIF), Nike (NKE), and Estee Lauder (EL).
Our Report on Coach
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Investment Considerations
Investment Highlights
Coach earns a ValueCreation? rating of EXCELLENT, the highest possible mark on our scale. The firm has been generating economic value for shareholders for the past few years, a track record we
view very positively. We expect the firm's return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) to expand to 141.9% from 109.2% during the next two years.
The company looks fairly valued at this time. We expect the firm to trade within our fair value estimate range for the time being. If the firm's share price fell below $53, we'd take a closer look.
Coach has an excellent combination of strong free cash flow generation and low financial leverage. We expect the firm's free cash flow margin to average about 23.1% in coming years. Total debt-to-EBITDA was 0 last year, while debt-to-book capitalization stood at 1.5%.
Although we think there may be a better time to dabble in the firm's shares based on our DCF process, the firm's stock has outperformed the market benchmark during the past quarter, indicating increased investor interest in the company.
The firm experienced a revenue CAGR of about 9.3% during the past 3 years. We expect its revenue growth to be better than its peer median during the next five years thanks to its opportunities in China.
Recent Quarterly Results
Coach, best known for its luxurious handbags, posted solid second-quarter results late January and provided a very optimistic tone about its brand's potential in China. We'll be re-evaluating our long-term expectations for Coach, but we don't expect to make a material change to our fair value estimate at this time.
Coach's sales expanded 15% in the quarter, while earnings per diluted share advanced 18%, to $1.18 per share (versus consensus expectations of $1.15 per share). Direct-to-consumer sales increased 17%, as North American comparable store sales rose 8.8% (above our mid-single-digit estimate). The firm remains optimistic about its Men's business, which it expects to double during fiscal year 2012, but we're somewhat skeptical that Coach will achieve that goal. The handbag-maker noted that sales momentum remains robust in China, and management highlighted its tremendous opportunity in the region on the conference call:
"?China is our largest geographic opportunity, given the size of the market and the rate of growth. During the quarter, our sales rose again sharply from prior year, fueled by distribution and significant double-digit same-store sales. Clearly, the Chinese consumer has embraced Coach, as evidenced by the excellent comps we're consistently generating and the extremely high repurchase intent among existing customers."
We were also quite impressed with Coach's ability to keep a tight lid on costs during the quarter, with margins advancing modestly, as lower overhead more than offset gross-margin pressures. All things considered, we remain on the sidelines with respect to Coach's shares (based solely on valuation) and look forward to reports from rivals Ralph Lauren (RL) and Michael Kors (KORS) that may provide additional insight into the health of the high-end consumer.
Economic Profit Analysis
The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. Coach 's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 95.6%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 10.8%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation? rating of EXCELLENT. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.
Cash Flow Analysis
Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. Coach 's free cash flow margin has averaged about 21.4% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively STRONG. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. For more information on the differences between these two measures, please visit our website at Valuentum.com here. In the spirit of transarency, our full report on Coach and hundreds of other companies can be found here. At Coach, cash flow from operations increased about 28% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures fell about 39% over the same time period.
Valuation Analysis
Our discounted cash flow model indicates that Coach 's shares are worth between $53 and $88 each. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm's MEDIUM ValueRisk? rating, which is derived from the historical volatility of key valuation drivers. The estimated fair value of $70 per share represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 24 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 14.3 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 11% during the next five years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 9.3%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 34.6%, which is above Coach's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 4.6% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For Coach, we use a 10.8% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.
Margin of Safety Analysis
Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $70 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk? rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for Coach. We think the firm is attractive below $53 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $88 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.
Future Path of Fair Value
We estimate Coach's fair value at this point in time to be about $70 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below right compares the firm's current share price with the path of Coach's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $92 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $70 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.
Pro Forma Financial Statements
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
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